Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Australia Employment Change, July 2026
What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first print for seasonally adjusted employed people month-over-month change in Australia be for July 2026, in thousands, in Labour Force, Australia?
current forecast · 80% CI24k
-27k24k75k
history:Apr-2026 SA employment change: -39kMay-2026 SA employment change: 44kJun-2026 SA employment change: 76klast-24-month mean SA employment change: 21klast-24-month sigma: 40k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-25T23:38:24Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 25, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- abs.labour.employment_change.australia.july_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- June employment spike likely partly unwinds after waiting-to-start-job effect
- trend employment growth near 32 thousand remains positive
- high participation and 4.4 percent unemployment imply labour demand still firm
- survey transition and rotation-group adjustment increase month-to-month noise
Resolution
- source
- Australian Bureau of Statistics Data API, Labour Force LF/M3.3.1599.20.AUS.M
- expected
- August 20, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first observed July 2026 API observation for ABS Labour Force series LF/M3.3.1599.20.AUS.M: seasonally adjusted employed persons, Australia, month-over-month change, in thousands. Use the value published in the first official ABS release/API print on 2026-08-20, rounded to one decimal thousand if the source presents one decimal; ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- abs.labour.employment_change.australia.july_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.