Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US goods and services trade deficit, July 2026
What will the first-print U.S. Census Bureau and BEA seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit be for July 2026, balance of payments basis, in billions of U.S. dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$69B
$56.1B$69B$81.9B
history:May 2026 deficit, latest FRED BOPGSTB mirror: $77.6BApril 2026 deficit, revised in May release: $54.6BMarch 2026 deficit, FRED BOPGSTB mirror: $56.6BFebruary 2026 deficit, FRED BOPGSTB mirror: $55BJanuary 2026 deficit, FRED BOPGSTB mirror: $54.2B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-25T16:07:46Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 25, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_07.first_print
Key drivers
- May goods deficit jumped to 106.5 while the services surplus was 28.9
- Recent 2026 deficits before May clustered near 54-57 billion
- May exports fell 10.5 and imports rose 12.5, so the latest level is partly a broad import/export shock
- Nonmonetary gold and capital-goods components were unusually visible in the May movement
- Two-month-ahead July forecast allows partial mean reversion but keeps a wider-than-normal deficit bias
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
- expected
- September 3, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first-print seasonally adjusted goods and services balance in Exhibit 1 of the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services release for July 2026, balance of payments basis, converted to a positive deficit in usd_billions and rounded to one decimal place. Use the initially released July 2026 value only; ignore later monthly, annual, benchmark, or same-series revisions.
- Data point
- bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.